本专著研究了巴尔喀什湖流域冰川的现状及未来变化趋势，并评估其对区域水资源动态的影响。主要内容包括：\n当代气候变化评估；\n冰川动态分析（包括外伊犁阿拉套山、南准噶尔山脉等地区冰川退化）；\n冰川质量平衡与Turviksu冰川的长期观测比较（1958年与1998年数据）；\n冰川资源变化预测（至2000年及未来几十年）；\n冰川退化对水资源安全的潜在影响。\n\n引言\n对于中亚国家而言，存在一些具有特殊优先地位的大规模问题。它们便是水资源和全球变暖问题。\n气候变化及其对环境、人口和经济可能产生后果的预测性评估是如此不利，以至于评估当前和预测的气候变化问题已成为当今最优先的问题之一。然而，还存在另一个更为现实的问题，其解决将影响我们星球上绝大多数人口的福祉以及国民经济可持续发展的可能性——这便是日益加剧的水资源短缺问题。\n在过去的几十年里，水安全问题一直是世界上大多数国家可持续发展体系中的主要问题之一。在1950年代初期，人口和国民经济供水状况相对良好[131]，但在随后的几十年里迅速恶化。早在1960-1970年代，在“国际地球物理年（IGY）”和“国际水文十年（IHD）”等全球项目框架下的研究，就在几乎所有大陆上发现了水领域发展的不利趋势以及为人口和经济企业供水可能性的变化。从那时起，水安全问题便引起了科学家和国际社会的关注。在过去的十年中，见证了在50多个直接或间接旨在解决水安全问题的项目框架内进行的调查。其中必须指出以下大型项目：\n—《世界水评估计划》(WWAP) — UNESCO；\n—《联合国开发计划署》(UNDP) [163]；\n—《全球环境基金》(GEF) —世界银行, UNDP, 联合国环境规划署；\n—《联合监测计划》(JMP) —联合国儿童基金会, 世界卫生组织；\n—《全球气候观测系统》— UNESCO, 世界气象组织, 联合国环境规划署；\n—《水、环境与卫生计划》(WES) —联合国儿童基金会；[164]。\n—《全球国际水域评估》(GIWA) [165] 和 «全球环境监测系统/淡水水质计划» (GEMS/WATER) [166] —联合国环境规划署；\n—《农业水资源开发与管理》 [167] 和《水土综合管理》[168] —联合国粮农组织；\n—《水资源管理》[169] 和《供水与卫生》 [170] —世界银行；\n—《国际水文计划》 (IHP) [171]；以及《人与生物圈计划》(MAB) [172] — UNESCO；\n—《水、卫生与健康计划》(WSH) [173] —世界卫生组织；\n—《水文与水资源计划》(HWR) [174] —世界气象组织。\n对水问题的这种关注并非偶然，它基于以下事实：\n如今，全球近80个国家，代表着世界40%的人口，面临着与水资源减少相关的严重问题。由于人口增长、全球变暖以及大气降水总量的变化，情况在未来50年内可能会恶化[161]。\n全球五分之一的人口无法获得饮用水供水，而全球一半人口没有足够的排污系统。在非洲、亚洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比海盆地国家，约有10亿人无法获得改善的供水和卫生系统[102, 103, 161]。在亚洲，有7亿人生活在没有足够供水的情况下，1.8亿人或60%的人口生活在没有足够卫生系统的环境中[144, 175]。\n据国际专家小组估计，随着人口增长和经济发展，淡水短缺将迅速加剧：在1900年至1995年期间，用水量增加了6-7倍，这是同期人口增长率的两倍多。1995年，全球总取水量为3750 km³/年，耗水量为2280 km³/年。考虑到经济发展、人口增长和气候变化的前景，根据不同估计，取水量可能达到每年4600至7000 km³。同样预计，到2025年，发达国家的用水量将增加15-35%，而发展中国家将增加200-300%[131]，实现为人们提供饮用水的“千年目标”将成为所有国家的主要支出，每年支出范围在100至300亿美元之间[145, 161, 163]。\n即使是现在，北半球温带纬度的大部分地区，包括哈萨克斯坦和中亚邻国，都表现出严重的水资源压力——水资源使用份额已经超过40%，并且正在以快速的速度进一步增加。根据同样的估计，日益加剧的水资源短缺可能引发“一系列局部和区域性灾难，这些灾难可能导致全球性危机”。\n中亚国家领土的绝大部分位于干旱地带，其特点是饮用水短缺。一个遭受水资源短缺地区的典型例子是哈萨克斯坦的领土，它是中亚水资源最匮乏的国家之一。地表水资源在空间和时间上极不均匀的分布使情况更加恶化——从共和国东南部每年70,000 m³/km²到哈萨克斯坦中部和北部每年6,500-8,000 m³/km²，在约20年一遇的枯水年，水量可能减少一个数量级以上。\n在过去的15-20年间，发表了许多科学论文，其作者对持续全球变暖导致干旱地区水资源显著减少表示出日益增长的关切。根据专家估计，由于全球变暖，咸海流域的水资源最早在未来几十年内可能减少20-40%。对于哈萨克斯坦的主要流域（伊犁河、额尔齐斯河和伊希姆河流域）也获得了类似的预测估计结果[65, 132]。证明上述预测合理性的论据之一是关于山地冰川正在发生强烈退化的无可争辩的事实：仅在1956年至1990年期间，哈萨克斯坦及其邻国山区的冰川资源就减少了三分之一以上，并且仍在以约每年1%的速度减少[128, 143]。如果这些趋势在未来持续下去，那么根据冰川学家的估计，到本世纪末，哈萨克斯坦山区的冰川将几乎消失[156]。这确实可能使得有必要重新审视该地区所有国家的供水系统，因为来自山区的冰川水占该地区主要河流年径流量的25%，以及在植被生长期占径流量的50%。\n在中亚条件下，评估冰川当前和预测的变化非常重要，因为出于两个原因。首先，冰川是自然界对气候变化反应的明显指示器——每世纪低于1.0°C的升温速率，结果足以使哈萨克斯坦东南部山区的冰川面积减少超过三分之一。\n评估当前冰川退化将如何影响河流径流也很重要。在中亚条件下，如果考虑到根据预测估计，由于全球变暖，中亚和哈萨克斯坦的主要河流，包括阿姆河、锡尔河、伊希姆河和托博尔河的水资源在未来几十年内可能减少20-40%[65, 132]，那么这就是最优先的问题之一。\n这种情况推动了本项目下继续进行研究。项目的主要目的表述如下：评估可预见未来内冰川的当前和预测变化及其对水资源的潜在影响。在项目的主要任务中，最重要的是评估可预见未来内冰资源的当前和预测变化及其对水资源的可能影响（它们对河流径流形成的贡献）。\n从科学角度来看，在本项目框架内将要进行的调查的重要性在于，它们提供了评估冰川资源的当前和预测趋势及其对该地区河流径流和水资源可能影响的机会。从社会经济角度来看，项目框架内调查的现实意义在于有可能利用调查结果来修正水资源管理的实际行动。\n考虑到项目下开展研究的上述优先事项和任务，本报告不仅必须包括对冰川当前和预测动态的评估结果，还必须详细考虑该地区当前和预测的气候变化以及主要的水问题。\n（该内容为AI翻译，不保证翻译准确率，详情请参照原文）\n\n
", "ds_source": "作者（编委会）：I. V. 谢维尔斯基（I. V. Severskiy）、A. L. 科卡列夫（A. L. Kokarev）、S. I. 谢维尔斯基（S. I. Severskiy）、T. G. 托克马甘别托夫（T. G. Tokmagambetov）、L. B. 沙加洛娃（L. B. Shagarova）、I. N. 谢斯特罗娃（I. N. Shesterova）\n出版社：VAC Publishing House\n出版地：阿拉木图\n出版年：2006年\n页数：67页\n语种：英文\nISBN号：9965-520-31-3\n
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", "ds_acq_start_time": "2025-06-12 00:00:00", "ds_acq_end_time": "2025-06-12 00:00:00", "ds_acq_place": "土库曼斯坦", "ds_acq_lon_east": null, "ds_acq_lat_south": null, "ds_acq_lon_west": null, "ds_acq_lat_north": null, "ds_acq_alt_low": null, "ds_acq_alt_high": null, "ds_share_type": "apply-access", "ds_total_size": 12101209, "ds_files_count": 1, "ds_format": "PDF格式", "ds_space_res": "无", "ds_time_res": "无", "ds_coordinate": "无", "ds_projection": "无", "ds_thumbnail": "a23fcd1e-3fe3-4b32-80b0-164648290f64.png", "ds_thumb_from": 0, "ds_ref_way": "", "paper_ref_way": "", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_from_station": null, "organization_id": "a5877b42-96ea-4f13-af7e-246f355413d6", "doi_value": "", "subject_codes": [ "170.55" ], "quality_level": 1, "publish_time": "2025-07-30 16:55:49", "first_publish_time": null, "last_updated": "2026-04-10 16:05:42", "protected": false, "protected_to": null, "lang": "zh", "cstr": "33110.11.ariddc.01125", "license": null, "extra": null, "files_shape": [ { "name": "20250601205《巴尔喀什湖流域冰川作用的现代变化与预测》.pdf", "size": 12101209, "is_dir": false } ], "features": null, "data_level": 0, "i18n": { "en": { "title": "Current status and predicted changes of glaciers in Balkhash Lake Basin", "ds_abstract": "This monograph studies the current status and future change trends of glaciers in the Balkhash Lake Basin, and evaluates their impact on regional water resource dynamics. The main contents include:\nContemporary climate change assessment;\nGlacier dynamics analysis (including glacier degradation in Alatao Mountains in Outer Ili, South Junggar Mountains and other areas);\nComparison of glacier mass balance and long-term observations of the Turviksu glacier (1958 and 1998 data);\nPrediction of changes in glacier resources (to 2000 and in future decades);\nPotential impact of glacier degradation on water security.\n\nintroduction\nFor Central Asian countries, there are some large-scale issues with special priority. They are water resources and global warming issues.\nPredictive assessments of climate change and its possible consequences for the environment, population and economy are so detrimental that assessing current and projected climate change issues has become one of the top priorities today. However, there is another, more real problem, the solution of which will affect the well-being of the vast majority of our planet's population and the possibility of sustainable development of national economies-the growing problem of water scarcity.\nOver the past few decades, water security has been one of the major issues in the sustainable development systems of most countries around the world. In the early 1950s, the population and national economy had relatively good water supplies,[131] but deteriorated rapidly in the following decades. As early as the 1960s and 1970s, research within the framework of global projects such as the International Geophysical Year (IGY) and the International Hydrological Decade (IHD) found unfavorable trends in the development of the water sector on almost all continents and changes in the possibility of supplying water to populations and economic enterprises. Since then, water security issues have attracted the attention of scientists and the international community. The past decade has witnessed surveys carried out within the framework of more than 50 projects directly or indirectly aimed at addressing water security issues. The following large projects must be noted:\n- World Water Assessment Plan (WWAP) - UNESCO;\n- United Nations Development Program (UNDP) [163];\n- Global Environment Facility (GEF) -World Bank, UNDP, United Nations Environment Program;\n- Joint Monitoring Plan (JMP) -United Nations Children's Fund, World Health Organization;\n- Global Climate Observing System- UNESCO, World Meteorological Organization, United Nations Environment Program;\n- Water, Environment and Sanitation Plan (WES) -United Nations Children's Fund;[164].\n- Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA) [165] and Global Environmental Monitoring System/Freshwater Quality Plan (GEMS/WATER) [166] -United Nations Environment Program;\n- \"Agricultural Water Resources Development and Management\"[167] and \"Integrated Water and Soil Management\"[168] -Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations;\n- Water Resources Management [169] and Water Supply and Sanitation [170] -World Bank;\n- International Hydrological Program (IHP) [171]; and Man and Biosphere Program (MAB) [172] - UNESCO;\n- Water, Sanitation and Health Plan (WSH) [173] -World Health Organization;\n- Hydrology and Water Resources Program (HWR) [174] -World Meteorological Organization.\nThis focus on water issues is not accidental and is based on the following facts:\nToday, nearly 80 countries around the world, representing 40% of the world's population, face serious problems related to water resource reduction. Due to population growth, global warming, and changes in total atmospheric precipitation, the situation may deteriorate over the next 50 years.[161]\nOne-fifth of the world's population does not have access to drinking water, and half of the world's population does not have adequate sewage systems. In Africa, Asia, Latin America and Caribbean basin countries, approximately 1 billion people lack access to improved water supply and sanitation systems [102, 103, 161]. In Asia, 700 million people live without adequate water supply, and 180 million people or 60% of the population live without adequate sanitation systems [144, 175].\nAccording to estimates by an international expert group, freshwater shortages will intensify rapidly as population growth and economic development: between 1900 and 1995, water use increased 6-7 times, which is more than twice the population growth rate during the same period. In 1995, the total global water intake was 3750 km³/year, and the water consumption was 2280 km³/year. Taking into account the prospects of economic development, population growth and climate change, according to different estimates, water withdrawal may reach 4600 to 7000 km³ per year. It is also expected that by 2025, water use in developed countries will increase by 15-35% and in developing countries by 200-300%[131]. Achieving the Millennium Goal of providing people with drinking water will become the main expenditure for all countries, ranging from US$10 to US$30 billion per year [145, 161, 163].\nEven now, most areas in the temperate latitudes of the northern hemisphere, including Kazakhstan and neighboring Central Asian countries, are showing severe water stress-the share of water use has exceeded 40%, and is increasing further at a rapid rate. According to the same estimates, growing water shortages could trigger \"a series of local and regional disasters that could lead to global crises.\"\nThe vast majority of the territory of Central Asian countries is located in arid zones, characterized by a shortage of drinking water. A typical example of a region suffering from water shortages is the territory of Kazakhstan, one of the most water-scarce countries in Central Asia. The situation is exacerbated by the extremely uneven distribution of surface water resources in space and time-from 70,000 m³/km2 per year in southeastern Republic to 6,500-8,000 m ³/km2 per year in central and northern Kazakhstan. In a dry year that occurs once in about 20 years, water volume may decrease by more than one order of magnitude.\nOver the past 15-20 years, many scientific papers have been published whose authors have expressed growing concern that continued global warming has led to significant reductions in water resources in arid areas. According to expert estimates, due to global warming, water resources in the Aral Sea Basin may decrease by 20-40% as early as the next few decades. Similar forecast estimates have been obtained for the main river basins of Kazakhstan (Ili River, Ertysh River and Isim River basins)[65, 132]. One of the arguments justifying the above predictions is the indisputable fact that mountain glaciers are undergoing strong degradation: between 1956 and 1990 alone, glacier resources in the mountainous areas of Kazakhstan and neighboring countries have declined by more than a third, and are still declining at a rate of approximately 1% per year [128, 143]. If these trends continue in the future, glaciologists estimate that glaciers in the mountainous areas of Kazakhstan will have almost disappeared by the end of this century [156]. This may indeed make it necessary to revisit the water supply systems of all countries in the region, as glacier water from mountainous areas accounts for 25% of the annual runoff of the region's major rivers and 50% of the runoff during the vegetation growing season.\nIn Central Asian conditions, assessing current and predicted changes in glaciers is important for two reasons. First, glaciers are a clear indicator of nature's response to climate change-warming rates of less than 1.0°C per century are enough to reduce the area of glaciers in mountainous areas of southeastern Kazakhstan by more than a third.\nIt is also important to assess how current glacier degradation will affect river runoff. Under Central Asian conditions, if it is considered that water resources in major rivers in Central Asia and Kazakhstan, including the Amu Darya, Syr Darya, Isim River and Tobor River, may decrease by 20-40% in the next few decades due to global warming, this is one of the top priority issues.\nThis situation prompted continued research under this project. The main purpose of the project is stated as follows: to assess current and predicted changes in glaciers in the foreseeable future and their potential impact on water resources. Among the main tasks of the project, the most important is to assess current and predicted changes in ice resources in the foreseeable future and their possible impact on water resources (their contribution to river runoff formation).\nFrom a scientific perspective, the importance of the surveys to be conducted within the framework of this project is that they provide the opportunity to assess current and predicted trends in glacier resources and their possible impact on river runoff and water resources in the region. From a socio-economic perspective, the practical significance of the survey within the framework of the project lies in the possibility of using the survey results to correct practical actions in water resources management.\nTaking into account the above-mentioned priorities and tasks for the research carried out under the project, this report must not only include an assessment of the current and predicted dynamics of glaciers, but must also consider in detail current and predicted climate change and major water issues in the region.\n(This content is AI translation and the translation accuracy is not guaranteed. Please refer to the original text for details)\n\n
", "ds_source": "Author (Editorial Board): I. V. Sheversky (I. V. Severskiy）、A. L. Kokalev (A. L. Kokarev）、S. I. S. Cheversky I. Severskiy）、T. G. Tokmaganbetov G. Tokmagambetov）、L. B. L. B. Shagarova）、I. N. I. N. Shesterova）\nPublished by: VAC Publishing House\nPublished: Almaty\nPublication year: 2006\nPages: 67 pages\nLanguage: English\nISBN No.: 9965-520-31-3\n
", "ds_process_way": "This book is the collection of the Documentation and Information Center of the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, China Academy of Sciences (hereinafter referred to as the Center). The center has stored the book electronically and completed OCR recognition. The data processing process is in accordance with the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Specifications for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources\", and fully complies with the data information of \"Current Situation and Predicted Changes of Glaciers in the Balkhash Lake Basin\" without modification or deletion.\n
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", "ds_acq_place": "Turkmenistan", "ds_format": "PDF format", "ds_projection": "no", "ds_space_res": "no", "ds_time_res": "no" } }, "license_type": null, "doi_reg_from": "reg_local", "cstr_reg_from": "reg_local", "doi_not_reg_reason": null, "cstr_not_reg_reason": null, "is_paper_in_submitting": false, "ds_topic_tags": [ "退化", "冰川", "水资源", "气候变化" ], "ds_subject_tags": [ "水文学" ], "ds_class_tags": [], "ds_locus_tags": [ "巴尔喀什湖", "哈萨克斯坦" ], "ds_time_tags": [ 2006 ], "ds_contributors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_meta_authors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_managers": [ "文献信息中心" ], "category": "图书" }