泥石流是最可怕的自然灾害之一，随着山区开发的加剧，其有害影响日益增长。防治泥石流采用各种方法，其中预测占有重要地位。然而，目前尚无有效的泥石流预测方法。这首先针对的是冰川泥石流，在许多山区，这类泥石流是主要的，具有最大的灾难性。\n本指南旨在通过利用电子计算机自动综合解译各种表征泥石流危险形势的水文气象及其他数据，来组织冰川泥石流的背景预测。上述解译结果以所服务区域泥石流危险指标历时曲线的形式呈现。\n所提方法的优点在于：利用标准水文气象信息、高效性、实施简便，以及所得结果的客观性和高精度。\n本指南包含为具体山区——苏联最危险泥石流地区之一的外伊犁阿拉套山脉——研制和应用冰川泥石流背景预测方法的示例。其中，泥石流与非泥石流形势预测的可靠性约为 90%。\n用于解译表征泥石流危险的数据的主要工具，是在“搜索”程序中实现的拓扑模式识别方法。使用该程序工作需要一套预测网络参数集，以及利用这些参数对可靠的泥石流危险和非泥石流危险形势的描述集，这些描述被用作基准。\n“搜索”程序还允许同时分析所选参数和基准的质量，并且随着使用该程序实践经验的积累或专门科学研究的进行，可以扩展用于预测的参数和基准组合。\n本指南面向苏联国家水文气象委员会地方管理局及其他负责提供泥石流危险预测的机构。所提出的方法可用于所有发生冰川泥石流的地区，且不重复其他先前已知的泥石流预测方案。\n本指南共分 3 章。第一章阐述了冰川泥石流背景预测的方法学基础，指出了冰川泥石流形势的主要特点，并提供了选择泥石流预测参数和基准形势的建议。展示了分析现有数据和所得结果的主要途径。\n第二章提供了在外伊犁阿拉套山脉应用所提出的冰川泥石流背景预测方法的示例。展示了该方法的制定、应用技术、其可能性，以及在实践应用该方法时遇到的实际困难。提供了具体区域的预测方案。\n第三章描述了所提方法的数学支持。该支持的基础是“搜索”模式识别程序，该程序目前适用于BЭСМ-4、M-222、明斯克-32、BЭСМ-6、CM-4型计算机，并正在向EC系列计算机移植。\n冰川泥石流背景预测方法的研制是根据苏联地质部全苏地球物理方法科学研究所与哈萨克苏维埃社会主义共和国科学院地理研究所之间的创造性合作协议进行的。冰川泥石流背景预测方法由Ю.В.霍缅纽克与П.А.普列汉诺夫共同研制。该项工作是在Г.А.托克马甘别托夫的方法指导和参与下完成的。该方法的数学支持由Ю.В.霍缅纽克和А.Б.马克西莫夫开发。\n1982年11月，冰川泥石流背景预测方法的研制成果在阿拉木图市举行的全苏“大陆内部沙漠与半沙漠山地地质生态学”研讨会上以及哈萨克苏维埃社会主义共和国部长会议下属哈萨克泥石流防治总局科学技术委员会会议上进行了报告并获得了批准
", "ds_source": "作者（编委会）：А. П. 戈尔布诺夫（А. П. Горбунов）\n出版社：Издательство «Наука» Казахской ССР\n出版地：阿拉木图\n出版年：1985年\n页数：61页\n语种：俄文\n馆藏条形码：XJLAS RU 70002278
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", "ds_acq_start_time": "2025-09-30 00:00:00", "ds_acq_end_time": "2025-09-30 00:00:00", "ds_acq_place": "苏联", "ds_acq_lon_east": null, "ds_acq_lat_south": null, "ds_acq_lon_west": null, "ds_acq_lat_north": null, "ds_acq_alt_low": null, "ds_acq_alt_high": null, "ds_share_type": "apply-access", "ds_total_size": 23598708, "ds_files_count": 1, "ds_format": "PDF格式", "ds_space_res": "无", "ds_time_res": "无", "ds_coordinate": "无", "ds_projection": "无", "ds_thumbnail": "4532846f-c0c2-4d84-818d-aa9847e68fc9.png", "ds_thumb_from": 0, "ds_ref_way": "", "paper_ref_way": "", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_from_station": null, "organization_id": "a5877b42-96ea-4f13-af7e-246f355413d6", "doi_value": "", "subject_codes": [ "170.5599" ], "quality_level": 1, "publish_time": "2026-09-11 11:41:09", "first_publish_time": null, "last_updated": "2026-09-11 11:41:09", "protected": false, "protected_to": null, "lang": "zh", "cstr": "33110.11.ariddc.02232", "license": null, "extra": null, "files_shape": [ { "name": "202507170001（XJLASRU70002278）双层.pdf", "size": 23598708, "is_dir": false } ], "features": null, "data_level": 0, "i18n": { "en": { "title": "Background prediction of glacier debris flow occurrence", "ds_abstract": "The articles included in this collection are based on field survey data carried out mainly in the central Tianshan Mountains. The nature and characteristics of glacier snow cover and ice body melting in the Saregiz River Basin are discussed. Attention was paid to the characteristics of temperature, air humidity and wind conditions in the inner basin of Tianshan Mountains. Some papers are devoted to discussing the development characteristics and dating of late Quaternary glaciation. The leveling results of morain-blocked lakes are provided, and on this basis, suggestions on leveling methods for such objects and suggestions on processing topographic survey data at the bottom of glacier lakes are put forward.", "ds_source": "Author (Editorial Board): А.П. Gorbunov (А.П.Горбунов）\r\nPublished by: А зда тельс тво «Наук а» К а з а в Р с к ой С С С\r\nPublished: Almaty\r\nPublication year: 1985\r\nPages: 61 pages\r\nLanguage: Russian\r\nCollection barcode: XJLAS RU 70002278", "ds_process_way": "This book is the collection of the Documentation and Information Center of the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, China Academy of Sciences (hereinafter referred to as the Center). The center has stored the book electronically and has been recognized by OCR. The data processing process is in accordance with the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Specifications for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources\", and fully complies with the data information of \"Background Prediction of Glacier Debris Flow Occurrence\" without modification or deletion.", "ds_quality": "The collected \"Background Prediction of Glacier Debris Flow Occurrence\" was electronically processed. In accordance with the requirements of the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Code for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources\", the \"Background Prediction of Glacier Debris Flow Occurrence\" was not changed and deleted. Data information, data quality is reliable.", "ds_acq_place": "Soviet Union", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_ref_way": "", "ds_format": "PDF format", "ds_projection": "no", "ds_space_res": "", "ds_time_res": "" } }, "license_type": null, "doi_reg_from": "reg_local", "cstr_reg_from": "reg_local", "doi_not_reg_reason": null, "cstr_not_reg_reason": null, "is_paper_in_submitting": false, "ds_topic_tags": [ "冰川泥石流", "数学建模" ], "ds_subject_tags": [ "水文学其他学科" ], "ds_class_tags": [], "ds_locus_tags": [ "苏联" ], "ds_time_tags": [ 1985 ], "ds_contributors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_meta_authors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_managers": [ "文献信息中心" ], "category": "图书" }